This raises two questions. One in southern England outside of a few larger towns and cities and London can any party other than the LibDems oppose the Tories in any meaningful way? In a similar vein in northern cities like Newcastle, Leeds, Manchester, Sheffield, Hull etc who other than the LibDems can oppose Labour? Are the the big two suddenly going to undergo a major revival in parts of the country where they have struggled for decades and have pretty much vanished. I read in the New Statesman a year back that the Tory party has 17 members in Stoke-on-Trent (population 240,000) I don't know whether that is true, however, it is an anecdote which sets the scene.
Over the last 30 years liberal council representation has grown rapidly and spread to all parts of the country. I think that the Tories having been wiped out in parts of the urban north have been replaced by the LibDems, who now rival Labour on many councils and are essentially a party of the right. Or if not a party of the right then a distinctive non-Labour force one which is recognised as such. Even at General Elections the LibDems appear to be taking the place of the Tories within an essentially two party system take for instance how the results in Sheffield Central have changed over the last 25 years:
2010|publisher=BBC|accessdate=11 May 2010}}}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Labour Party (UK)
|candidate = [[Paul Blomfield]]
|votes = 17,138
|percentage = 41.3
|change = -5.2
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Liberal Democrats (UK)
|candidate = [[Paul Scriven]]
|votes = 16,973
|percentage = 40.9
|change = +9.5
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Conservative Party (UK)
|candidate = Andrew Lee
|votes = 4,206
|percentage = 10.1
|change = +1.0
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Green Party of England and Wales
|candidate = Jillan Creasy
|votes = 1,556
|percentage = 3.8
|change = -2.0
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = British National Party
|candidate = Tracey Smith
|votes = 903
|percentage = 2.2
|change = +0.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = United Kingdom Independence Party
|candidate = Jeffrey Shaw
|votes = 652
|percentage = 1.6
|change = -0.1
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Independent (politician)
|candidate = Rod Rodgers
|votes = 40
|percentage = 0.1
|change = +0.1
}}
{{Election box majority|
|votes = 165
|percentage = 0.4
|change =
}}
{{Election box turnout|
|votes = 41,468
|percentage = 59.6
|change = +4.6
}}
{{Election box hold with party link|
|winner = Labour Party (UK)
|swing = -7.4
}}{{Election box end}}
===Elections in the 2000s===
{{Election box begin |
|title=[[United Kingdom general election, 2005|General Election 2005]]: Sheffield Central[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/511.stm BBC Election 2005]}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Labour Party (UK)
|candidate = [[Richard Caborn]]
|votes = 14,950
|percentage = 49.9
|change = -11.5
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Liberal Democrats (UK)
|candidate = Ali Qadar
|votes = 7,895
|percentage = 26.3
|change = +6.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Conservative Party (UK)
|candidate = Samantha George
|votes = 3,094
|percentage = 10.3
|change = -0.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Green Party of England and Wales
|candidate = Bernard Little
|votes = 1,808
|percentage = 6.0
|change = +2.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = RESPECT The Unity Coalition
|candidate = Maxine Bowler
|votes = 1,284
|percentage = 4.3
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = British National Party
|candidate = Mark Payne
|votes = 539
|percentage = 1.8
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = United Kingdom Independence Party
|candidate = Charlotte Arnott
|votes = 415
|percentage = 1.4
|change = +0.5
}}
{{Election box majority|
|votes = 7,055
|percentage = 23.5
|change = −18.2
}}
{{Election box turnout|
|votes = 29,985
|percentage = 50.1
|change = +0.6
}}
{{Election box hold with party link|
|winner = Labour Party (UK)
|swing = -9.1
}}
{{Election box end}}
{{Election box begin |
|title=[[United Kingdom general election, 2001|General Election 2001]]: Sheffield Central[http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2001/results_constituencies/constituencies/511.stm BBC Vote 2001]}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Labour Party (UK)
|candidate = [[Richard Caborn]]
|votes = 18,477
|percentage = 61.4
|change = -2.2
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Liberal Democrats (UK)
|candidate = Ali Qadar
|votes = 5,933
|percentage = 19.7
|change = +2.5
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Conservative Party (UK)
|candidate = Noelle Brelsford
|votes = 3,289
|percentage = 10.9
|change = -1.0
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Green Party of England and Wales
|candidate = Bernard Little
|votes = 1,008
|percentage = 3.4
|change = +0.7
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Socialist Alliance (England)
|candidate = Nick Riley
|votes = 754
|percentage = 2.5
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Socialist Labour Party (UK)
|candidate = David Hadfield
|votes = 289
|percentage = 1.0
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = United Kingdom Independence Party
|candidate = Elizabeth Schofield
|votes = 257
|percentage = 0.9
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Workers Revolutionary Party (UK)
|candidate = Robert Driver
|votes = 62
|percentage = 0.2
|change = -0.0
}}
{{Election box majority|
|votes = 12,544
|percentage = 41.7
|change = −4.7
}}
{{Election box turnout|
|votes = 30,069
|percentage = 49.5
|change = -3.6
}}
{{Election box hold with party link|
|winner = Labour Party (UK)
|swing = -2.36
}}
{{Election box end}}
===Elections in the 1990s===
{{Election box begin |
|title=[[United Kingdom general election, 1997|General Election 1997]]: Sheffield Central[http://politics.guardian.co.uk/hoc/constituency/history/0,9571,-1279,00.html Guardian Unlimited Politics][http://www.sheffield.gov.uk/EasySite/lib/serveDocument.asp?doc=101328&pgid=113083 Sheffield General Election Results 1945 - 2001], [[Sheffield City Council]]}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Labour Party (UK)
|candidate = [[Richard Caborn]]
|votes = 23,179
|percentage = 63.6
|change = −5.1
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Liberal Democrats (UK)
|candidate = Ali Qadar
|votes = 6,273
|percentage = 17.2
|change = +5.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Conservative Party (UK)
|candidate = Martin Hess
|votes = 4,341
|percentage = 11.9
|change = −4.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Green Party of England and Wales
|candidate = Andy D'Agorne
|votes = 954
|percentage = 2.6
|change = +0.3
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Referendum Party
|candidate = Anthony Brownlow
|votes = 863
|percentage = 2.4
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Socialist Party (England and Wales)
|candidate = Ken Douglas
|votes = 466
|percentage = 1.3
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Prolife Alliance
|candidate = Maureen Aitken
|votes = 280
|percentage = 0.8
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Workers Revolutionary Party (UK)
|candidate = Michael Driver
|votes = 63
|percentage = 0.2
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box majority|
|votes = 16,906
|percentage = 46.4
|change = −5.8
}}
{{Election box turnout|
|votes = 36,419
|percentage = 53.0
|change = −3.1
}}
{{Election box hold with party link|
|winner = Labour Party (UK)
|swing =
}}
{{Election box end}}
{{Election box begin |
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Labour Party (UK)
|candidate = [[Richard Caborn]]
|votes = 22,764
|percentage = 68.7
|change =+1.0
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Conservative Party (UK)
|candidate = Vernon Davies
|votes = 5,470
|percentage = 16.5
|change = −0.6
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Liberal Democrats (UK)
|candidate = Andrew Sangar
|votes = 3,856
|percentage = 11.6
|change = −2.3
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Green Party of England and Wales
|candidate = Graham Wroe
|votes = 750
|percentage = 2.3
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate|
|party = [[End Unemployment Vote Justice for Jobless]]
|candidate = M. Clarke
|votes = 212
|percentage = 0.6
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Communist League (UK, 1988)
|candidate = J. O'Brien
|votes = 92
|percentage = 0.3
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box majority|
|votes = 17,294
|percentage = 52.2
|change = +1.5
}}
{{Election box turnout|
|votes = 33,144
|percentage = 56.1
|change = −5.4
}}
{{Election box hold with party link|
|winner = Labour Party (UK)
|swing =
}}
{{Election box end}}
===Elections in the 1980s===
{{Election box begin |
|title=[[United Kingdom general election, 1987|General Election 1987]]: Sheffield Central[http://www.psr.keele.ac.uk/psr.htm Richard Kimber's Political Science Resources]}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Labour Party (UK)
|candidate = [[Richard Caborn]]
|votes = 25,872
|percentage = 67.7
|change = +7.5
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Conservative Party (UK)
|candidate = Brian Oxley
|votes = 6,530
|percentage = 17.1
|change = −2.1
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = SDP-Liberal Alliance
|candidate = Fiona Hornby
|votes = 5,314
|percentage = 13.9
|change = −5.5
}}
{{Election box candidate|
|party = [[Red Front (UK)|Red Front]]
|candidate = C. T. Dingle
|votes = 278
|percentage = 0.7
|change = ''N/A''
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|
|party = Communist Party of Great Britain
|candidate = Keith Petts
|votes = 203
|percentage = 0.5
|change = −0.2
}}
{{Election box majority|
|votes = 19,342
|percentage = 50.7
|change = +9.9
}}
{{Election box turnout|
|votes = 38,197
|percentage = 62.5
|change = +0.9
}}
{{Election box hold with party link|
|winner = Labour Party (UK)
|swing =
}}
{{Election box end}}
Sheffield Central is an extreme example, much influenced by candidates and changing demographics. However, it reveals a wider political trend away from the Tories towards the LibDems. Now it is clear that not just Tories switching to the LibDems many Labour members have swung away from the party as well. It is not the first time that a major realignment has taken place in Britian's cities until the 1960s the Conservatives tended to dominate cities like Birmingham and even more surprisingly Liverpool, Stoke and Newcastle-Upon-Tyne (by attracting former Liberals perhaps?) it wasn't until the 1970s that Labour began to eclipse them and finally Thatcher hatred (a mutual thing) finished off Conservative hopes of ever regaining power in much of the country north of the Trent alone. We see a similar trend in Scotland where as late as 1959 the "Unionists" were able to win the majority of the seats (they even won 21 in 1992 before being wiped out in 1997 until they regained a toehold in the Borders in 2005). Interestingly these figures also match fluctuations in Liberal/Alliance/LibDem support...
It is quite possible that with disgusted former Labour voters returning whence they came, that the LibDems face a generation in the wilderness in the urban north (I'll come onto rural bits later). This may well paradoxically allow the Tories the space in the political spectrum that they need to grow, much as the various Green, BNP, Independent and crucially LibDem politicians moved into the Labour dominated vacuum that was northern politics. It is quite possible (although the artificial duopoly that is London Assembly/Mayoral elections will restrain this) that London's elections will become more interesting now that Labour appears to be poised to sweep the board down there, having captured most of the inner-boroughs in a few cases taking all of the seats! Monoparty domination can only last so long in a democracy.
On the other hand if the coalition proves a great success it is quite possible that the LibDems maybe become the dominant party in northern politics, displacing Labour and outflanking any Tory rival. It is also possible that if the Tories accept the idea of local government electoral reform that talk of dominant parties will become redundant because no party will ever be able to get a majority on anything. I however, don't hold out much hope for either outcome and therefore resign myself to the distinct possibility that the LibDems face the electoral wilderness in the urban and post-industrial north, but think it likely that the party may well recover with more sustainable foundations in the south.
Rural Radicalism
The past offers some clear pointers here. In the later 1980s and in the 1990s the LibDems were able to pick up a lot of support in the south, taking control of Cornwall, Somerset, Dorset, Devon, Wiltshire and even Berkshire CCs. And capturing south-London Borough and rural district councils across the country. Winning by-elections in Newbury and Christchurch, as well as capturing seats directly from the Tories in Scotland and Wales. It seems reasonable to assume that over the lifetime of this government we shall be able to make significant gains both at council and by-elections from the Tories. Why? Our brand is now largely detoxified with moderate Conservatives and swing-voters, having been somewhat contaminated by Labour and the (false) perception that we were "left of them", as opposed to just "very different". The days when we were associated with Labour's assault upon the countryside and small town England is over, whilst the days when the Tories could just soke up votes by virtue of being in opposition are also gone.
As such the time has come to gear up the networks and activism, not the mention try and raise the issues, which enabled us to become a force once more in much of rural Britain. we need to be radical in delivering, liberating, open-minded solutions to the problems faced by non-urban communities currently utterly ignored, nay, actively spurned by Labour and taken for granted by a complacent Conservative Party. We are not two nations, what appeals to the suburbs, county towns and the shires can also appeal to the post industrial sprawl, inner-cities and former mining belt, however, at the moment we have the resources and the networks in Harborough, not Havering, Torquay not Trafford and Flyde not Fleetwood. These areas were Liberal once and they shall be Liberal Democrat again.
